+ more...

Tehran 'like a war zone' as ayatollah refuses to back down on election

“The measure of a nation is its vote.”

Is Facebook Helping to Squash the Green Revolution?

Inhumane Bastards!

Neda Soltan's family 'forced out of home' by Iranian authorities

Parents of young woman shot dead near protests are banned from mourning and funeral is cancelled, neighbours say

Full story @ TheGuardian

!!!

they pull away the dead into trucks - like factory - no human can do this - we beg Allah for save us - #Iranelection less than 5 seconds ago from web

"I was going towards Baharestan with my friend. This was everyone, not just supporters of one candidate or another. All of my friends, they were going to Baharestan to express our opposition to these killings and demanding freedom. The black-clad police stopped everyone. They emptied the buses that were taking people there and let the private cars go on. We went on until Ferdowsi then all of a sudden some 500 people with clubs came out of [undecipherable] mosque and they started beating everyone. They tried to beat everyone on [undecipherable] bridge and throwing them off of the bridge. And everyone also on the sidewalks. They beat a woman so savagely that she was drenched in blood and her husband, he fainted. They were beating people like hell. It was a massacre. They were trying to beat people so they would die. they were cursing and saying very bad words to everyone. This was exactly a massacre... I don't know how to describe it."

Son's Death has family asking "why"?

Down/time...

THE HUFFINGTON POST
THE GUARDIAN
DAILY DISH
NIAC
THE LEDE
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
#gr88
#iraninternational
(@ twitter)

ANONYMOUS IRAN

ETC>

Another long day here in the 'Exile' compound down here in downtown 'teh-ran' and about to put away the brain for another night. Please follow what goes on at the links above/
Again thanx for following.

If you follow on all the links that I have posted today again there is some very interesting reading...

Finally a message to all the people following this blog in Iran:
Any pictures or words would be gratefully accepted here at Exile...

Monastreet @ gmail dot com
twitter/exilestreet

Later/

Understanding Iran's Turmoil: An Expert Weighs In

(AUDIO)

+ more...

Newspaper Roozonline has an interview (in Persian) with one of the young plainclothes militiamen who have been beating protesters.

The Guardian's Robert Tait sends this synopsis:

The man, who has come from a small town in the eastern province of Khorasan and has never been in Tehran before, says he is being paid 2m rial (£122) to assault protestors with a heavy wooden stave. He says the money is the main incentive as it will enable him to get married and may even enable him to afford more than one wife. Leadership of the volunteers has been provided by a man known only as "Hajji", who has instructed his men to "beat the counter-revolutionaries so hard that they won't be able to stand up". The volunteers, most of them from far-flung provinces such as Khuzestan, Arak and Mazandaran, are being kept in hostel accommodation, reportedly in east Tehran. Other volunteers, he says, have been brought from Lebanon, where the Iranian regime has strong allies in the Hezbollah movement. They are said to be more highly-paid than their Iranian counterparts and are put up in hotels. The last piece of information seems to confirm the suspicion of many Iranians that foreign security personnel are being used to suppress the demonstrators. For all his talk of the legal process, this interview provides a key insight into where Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, believes the true source of his legitimacy rests. @TheGuardian

Eye witness account

I am an Iranian-American student in Iran. I just got back from Baharestan and here’s what I saw. I got there around 3:45 pm Tehran time and about 500-1000 people were mulling around the subway station and park across the street from the Majles. The police presence was slim so people were just waiting in the shade to see what was coming. Then it police and pasdaran started arriving from all sides and moving people away. First, from the subway stop, then from the sidestreets and sidewalks, and then from the major streets surrounding it. Of course they were polite first (Iranian custom dies hard), but no one really left when asked. I circled around several times to see if people would resist. More people were arriving from all sides. Some whispered that that everyone was going to another place, but that didn’t convince many. The lack of organization was palpable - people were expecting something but they didn’t know what. Mousavi to jump out of a moving car? Khatami to swing in like Toby McGuire?

Finally the more ominous looking black-clad guards showed up and started phalanxes that cleared the sidewalks. I was a block away until about 4:30 and heard no shots, and only heard about some beatings via others in the crowd. One phalanx came my way so I ducked into an alley, and then they turned down the same alley looking very goon squad-like so I just headed away. If there were hardcore protesters that stayed after that then I’m sure they had trouble coming. On my way back from Imam Khomeini metro station (where police were also posted outside in the square) I noticed that Baharestan metro stop had been closed - the train passed it without stopping.

Even so, the police presence was nothing like the massive buildup in Enghelab square from Saturday onwards.

Via TheLede

Eye witness account

I am an Iranian-American student in Iran. I just got back from Baharestan and here’s what I saw. I got there around 3:45 pm Tehran time and about 500-1000 people were mulling around the subway station and park across the street from the Majles. The police presence was slim so people were just waiting in the shade to see what was coming. Then it police and pasdaran started arriving from all sides and moving people away. First, from the subway stop, then from the sidestreets and sidewalks, and then from the major streets surrounding it. Of course they were polite first (Iranian custom dies hard), but no one really left when asked. I circled around several times to see if people would resist. More people were arriving from all sides. Some whispered that that everyone was going to another place, but that didn’t convince many. The lack of organization was palpable - people were expecting something but they didn’t know what. Mousavi to jump out of a moving car? Khatami to swing in like Toby McGuire?

Finally the more ominous looking black-clad guards showed up and started phalanxes that cleared the sidewalks. I was a block away until about 4:30 and heard no shots, and only heard about some beatings via others in the crowd. One phalanx came my way so I ducked into an alley, and then they turned down the same alley looking very goon squad-like so I just headed away. If there were hardcore protesters that stayed after that then I’m sure they had trouble coming. On my way back from Imam Khomeini metro station (where police were also posted outside in the square) I noticed that Baharestan metro stop had been closed - the train passed it without stopping.

Even so, the police presence was nothing like the massive buildup in Enghelab square from Saturday onwards.

Via TheLede

RT hackers please hack www.gerdab.ir this is a website that identifies and hurts innocent ppl participatin in peaceful rallies #iranelection less than 20 seconds ago from web

+ more...

From Iran im now in one of the protests:i have see for shure 4 dead ppl URGENT FWD TO TELL THE FREE WORLD #IRANELECTION #tehran #qom less than 10 seconds ago from web

UNCONF report from Tehran: 3 ppl shot in Baharestan, shooting continues, conflicts increasing. #iranelection #gr88 #neda #iran less than 20 seconds ago from web

Iran 'will not yield' over poll@BBC

Where it is happening thanx Nico

Twitter VS CNN

RT IRAN: Plainclothes among the people in Baharestan- if you talk on your mobile there, you will be beaten or arrested. #iranelection less than 10 seconds ago from web

Report: Militia's Ordered To Pick-Up Protesters (List of Names) For Execution In The Streets (Unconfirmed) #IranElection Tehran Iran Neda less than 10 seconds ago from web

saw 7/8 militia beating one woman with baton on ground - she had no defense nothing - #Iranelection sure that she is dead

so many ppl arrested - young & old - they take ppl away - #Iranelection - we lose our groupless than 5 seconds ago from web

There are more disturbing reports on Twitter of injuries in Bahareston Square. One usually reliable source says it is like a war zone with blood everywhere and many nursing broken bones.

The Doctor Is Identified!

Another cleric takes part in the protest!

reports police attacked ppl holding #Neda's pix. Clashes, tear gas in Baharestan Sq. #iranelection #iran #gr88 #mousavi less than 20 seconds ago from web

RT (3pm): Baharestan situation is too bad , police shoot ,people sent to the south of Sq #iranelection less than 20 seconds ago from Tweetie
RT a girl was shooted in Baharestan Sq #iranelection #gr88 #neda they dont allow people to help shooted girl less than 20 seconds ago from web

>More than 10.000 Bassij Milittias get position in Central Tehran, including Baharestan Sq.

>25 journalist were arrested last night.

>Arrested journalists have been threatend to write in support of Ahmadinejad and his government and not to support popular gatherings anymore.

> Mohsen Rezae popular communications office, in an open letter criticized him for getting back his complaint from the Guardian Council inregards 2009 Iran election

>Army Helycopters flying over Baharestan and Vali Asr Sq.

>'Larijani pressing for Mousavi to be given airtime on IRIB to discuss elections'

>Thousands of detainees family members have gathered in front of Tehran's revolution(Enghelaab)court. The force police has surrounded them.Fervent atmosphere in place and conflict is possible at any moment.

> Emad-e-din Baaghi was served by Enghelab court & warned for interview with Persian media outside Iran.

>Conflict at Baharestan Sq.Even police attack pedestrian by tear gas.

> The Islamic Republic of Iran does not allow under any circustances any form of mourning ceremony for NEDA AGHA SOLTAN

>The streets, squares and around BAHARESTAN (Approx. South-eastern of Tehran) is swarming with military forces, civilian forces, the security motorists@RevolutionaryRoad

1.40pm:
Hundreds of people, many from the families of those arrested have gathered outside Revolution Court, according to usually reliable Twitter user.

A reader emails with the correct spellings of the locations for today's demonstrations: Baharestan Square, Enghelab Square, Vanak Square, Vali-asr Square, Tajrish Square and Sadeghieh Square.

1.31pm:
Anne Applebaum focuses on the important role of women in Iran's upheaval.

But regimes that repress the civil and human rights of half their population are inherently unstable. Sooner or later, there has to be a backlash. In Iran, we're watching one unfold.@TheGuardian

The Islamic Republic of Iran does not allow under any circustances any form of mourning ceremony for NEDA AGHA SOLTAN

RT Basij are Iranains, not Lebanese or Palestinian. Don't be like Khamenei and blame foreigners. RT Rt #IranElection less than 10 seconds ago from web

Update | 8:27 a.m. Outside Tehran it has been hard to get accurate information about protests but Lara Setrakian of ABC reports from Dubai that she “just heard disturbing news of 22-yr-old in Mashad shot dead while chanting Allahu Akbar on roof.” She adds that the report is unconfirmed but from a trusted source. @TheLede

WHY IS THIS BEING KEPT UNDER WRAPS?
If anyone can translate from Farsi and send to:

monastreet @ gmail dot com

I would be very grateful

Iranian updates (keep refreshing page#45)

He went to a polling station on the day of the election not having shaved for a couple of days - which gave him the appearance of a Basij or a plain-clothed pro-regime type. When he handed his ID notebook in order to cast his vote, the authorities didn't bother to stamp it to confirm that he had already done so and was ineligible to cast any further ballots - they assumed from his appearance he was pro-Ahmadinejad and so wanted to give him the chance to vote again.. He voted for Mousavi - and taking advantage of the official hospitality - he went straight to another polling station and cast another vote for Mousavi. It was to no avail and that's not what the tacit nod towards casting a second vote was designed to achieve. But it's a fascinating insight into the jiggery-pokery that went on in election day.Robert Tait @TheGuardian

An Iranian protester holding an anti-British placard kicks burning flags during a demonstration in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, Iran. Photograph: Javad Moghimi/AP

Jeremy Bowen BBC reports less militia on streets when he toured 1 hour ago #iranelection #gr88 less than 20 seconds ago from TweetDeck

Despite fantasies of insurrection in some of the more fevered Western media assessments of the confrontation, the balance of forces appears to militate against a knockout blow by either side. U.S.-based Iran scholar Farideh Farhi, speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations, stressed that Ahmadinejad and the Supreme leader may not have the majority of the people behind them, "but they do have support. They also have the resources of the state - both financial and military. So that makes them quite robust."
At the same time, Farhi notes, the opposition coalition includes some very powerful figures from within the regime, who together command the support of a large section of the population. Thus, she warns, "To assume that this will lead ultimately to a victory of one over the other is unrealistic as well as dangerous because it may come at the cost of tremendous violence." More likely, she argues, is the pursuit of some sort of compromise that allows the regime to back down to some extent, without necessarily surrendering.@Time via HuffPo

There are numerous Twitter reports of demonstrations taking place in Tehran. One says the protests are at six locations: Bahareset, Valiasr, Enghelab, Vanak, Tajrish, Sadehgieh.

VIDEO

Army Helycopters flying over Baharestan and Vali Asr Sq. #iranelection less than 20 seconds ago from web

7:13 AM ET -- Demonstrations going local. An editor for the Kahylan newspaper notes to Al Jazeera that university students are now returning to their home towns, and bringing demonstrations with them. "In provinces, where people were before gathering in universities, in recent days were are seeing people gathering in main squares."@HuffPo

VIDEO

The Iranian authorities and their lackeys in the state-controlled media are trying to launch a counter-offensive on the Neda phenomenon, writes Robert Tait.

Jomhouri Islami newspaper is blaming her shooting on snipers from the MKO (a militant group calling for the overthrow of the republic). It said the group exploited the lack of security created by the demonstrations.

Javan, another pro-regime paper, blamed an even more unlikely source - my friend and recently expelled BBC correspondent Jon Leyne. It claims that Leyne hired "thugs" to shoot her so he could then make a documentary film.

Meanwhile, the government has forbidden hospitals from releasing deaths certificates that give shooting as the cause of death.

@TheGuardian

Shrin Ebadi, an Iranian human rights lawyer and Nobel peace prize winner, has offered to represent the family of Neda Agha Soltan, the woman whose death was captured on that horrific video.

"I am personally prepared to legally represent her family against the people who ordered the shooting and those who fired at her. This act was against the law," she told al-Jazeera.

If you are in Iran & want your story to be heard...contact
monastreet @ gmail dot com

Iran's Supreme Revolutionary

Interior Minister says some 'foreign nationals' have been arrested in Tehran during protets. Some with British passports, #iranelection half a minute ago from web

The supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says he won't yield to pressure on the election, according to a Twitter flash from Reuters.

"I had insisted and will insist on implementing the law on the election issue ... Neither the establishment nor the nation will yield to pressure at any cost," Khamenei said in his first remarks since Obama's press conference.

Unrest in Iran: Incident Statistics and Map for Protests, Arrests, and Deaths@IranTracker

Exile at the 'Huffington Post' (again!)

Just remember where you read it first!

Iranian updates (keep refreshing page#44)

A placard with 75 names of arrested students in Iran Photograph: Saeed Kamali Dehghan

UPDATED LIST OF WORLDWIDE DEMO'S

EXCLUSIVE: U.S. contacted Iran's ayatollah before election@WashingtonTimes

+ more...

Green Brief 7

Protests in Iran capital 'halted'@BBC(with new video)

Tehran Residents Fear - in their own words!

To the Bazaar, Comrades!

The torture of a 17-year-old in Iran - A teenager's story, with graphic photos, of abuse at the hands of Iran's religious paramilitaries, the Basij @Salon

RIP Neda Agha-Soltan

CNN

Iranian updates (keep refreshing page#43)

More anomalies in voting data@5:38

List includes 240 detained, incl 29 detained then released, 102 political figures, 23 journalists, 79 university students & 7 faculty. #Iranabout 2 hours ago from web HERE

79 Iran revolution had no Net, cellfones, Twitter. What makes them think that cutting it will help regime now? #iranelection less than 10 seconds ago from web

Does anyone have any more pictures of clerics marching in the streets?
Please send them to:
monastreet @ gmail dot com

Thanx

Support for democracy in Iran comes at a heavy price for four Iranian World Cup soccer players. They received a lifetime ban.
The Guardian reported:

Their gesture attracted worldwide comment and drew the attention of football fans to Iran's political turmoil. Now the country's authorities have taken revenge by imposing life bans on players who sported green wristbands in a recent World Cup match in protest against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election.

According to the pro-government newspaper Iran, four players – Ali Karimi, 31, Mehdi Mahdavikia, 32, Hosein Ka'abi, 24 and Vahid Hashemian, 32 – have been "retired" from the sport after their gesture in last Wednesday's match against South Korea in Seoul.

Democracy, Made In Iran
@ The Guardian

The Arabs’ Forlorn Envy of Iranians

How Iran betrayed its young

The End of the Beginning?

Obama mentions Neda at press conference.
"Above all, we have seen courageous women stand up to brutality and threats, and we have experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets. While this loss is raw and painful, we also know this: those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history."

Obama's speech

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Nico's question:"Under which conditions would you accept the election of Ahmadinejad, and if you do accept it without any significant changes in the conditions there, isn't that a betrayal of what the demonstrators there are working toward?"

Obama's rsponse:"Well look, we didn't have international observers on the ground, we can't say definitively what exactly happened at polling places throughout the country. What we know is that a sizeable percentage of the Iranian people themselves, spanning Iranian society, considered this election illegitimate. It's not an isolated instance, a little grumbling here or there. There [are] significant questions about the legitimacy of the election. And so ultimately, the most important thing for the Iranian government to consider is legitimacy in the eyes of its own people, not in the eyes of the United States. And that's why I've been very clear, ultimately this is up to the Iranian people to decide who their leadership is going to be and the structure of their government. What we can do is to say unequivocally that there are sets of international norms and principles about violence, about dealing with peaceful dissent, that spans cultures, spans borders, and what we've been seeing over the Internet and what we've been seeing in news reports, violates those norms and violates those principles. I think it is not too late for the Iranian government to recognize that there is a peaceful path that will lead to stability and legitimacy and prosperity for the Iranian people. We hope they take it."

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Transcript of Obama's speech in Persian

RIP Neda Agha-Soltan

Here

Down/time...

THE HUFFINGTON POST
THE GUARDIAN
DAILY DISH
NIAC
THE LEDE
REVOLUTION ROAD
#gr88
#iraninternational
(@ twitter)

ANONYMOUS IRAN

ETC>

Another long day here in the 'Exile' compound down here in downtown 'teh-ran' and about to put away the brain for another night. Please follow what goes on at the links above/
Again thanx for following.

If you follow on all the links that I have posted today again there is some very interesting reading...

Finally a message to all the people following this blog in Iran:
Any pictures or words would be gratefully accepted here at Exile...

Monastreet @ gmail dot com
twitter/exilestreet

Later/

Iranian updates (keep refreshing page#42)

Obama will condemn Iran abuses

On Tuesday morning, from 9am all of us all over Iran will make our way towards the markets (bazaar). If they try to block us the market will shut down, and if they don’t then we will create such a swarm that the market will still close down. If the telephones/mobiles are cut off from first thing in the morning business will be disrupted all over the country and markets will close, and with our movement towards the bazaar with the goal of closing it down we will gather others to walk with us.

Bring your children too and very calmly – without shouting slogans – without wearing green – we will look as though we are going shopping but we won’t buy anything and will think only of shutting down the market, and will not leave any traces of ourselves. We will not even show the victory sign with our hands… under no circumstances …
Think only of victory and bring children throughout all the cities in Iran without slogans, without slogans, without slogans, calmly, calmly, calmly without green, without conflict. If someone interferes, don’t engage in conflict because in appearance we are a crowd shopping, there’s nothing to fear and everyone will come – no clashes, no bloodshed, no slogans, no conflict. If they try and stop us we will return home easily because our goal is to shut the market down not protest. If they throw tear gas the market will be closed down, we are clever and we won’t engage in conflict and any conflict on the part of the security forces will cause chaos in the market and it will close, but we will not engage in conflict. We will calmly think of victory and the market will either close from our swarms or from a lack of activity. Either way we are the winners. Moosavi needs your support and needs your leadership to make sure that this goes ahead on time.

Khatami released a statement on Mousavi’s facebook page earlier today.

Millions of informed and decent people who believe that their votes have been tampered with, and that their intellect has been insulted, and for the defence of their rights and dignity have in a spontaneous manner come into the streets to express their pain and sense of oppression. You (the regime) insult them, and have stolen thousands of them from the streets and from their homes and taken them to unknown places. You have attacked the students and to these people who call out God is Great or Ya Hossein – you attack them like Moghuls.

You dare to blame these attacks on the people themselves.

We strongly support Mr. Mousavi – especially against the accusations that all the unrest and damage is due to his actions. This damage is the responsibility of those who turned our city into a barracks. They should be identified, arrested and charged.

Senior clergy across the country have told us that they have been put under severe pressure (by the state) to stand up against the millions of people. Until now, they have resisted. We thank them.

For the return of people’s trust and confidence we ask for the formation of a committee of neutral people, experts, and those familiar with the law who can investigate and address the complaints made by the candidates in the elections. May they issue a fair judgment… and help return our country to harmony.

Statement released by the Organisation of Combatant Clergy, June 22 2009

Shirin Ebadi - Nobel Peace Laureat - calls for International Political sanctions against Iran Gov - #Iranelection RT RT RT35 minutes ago from web

Iranian authorities scramble to negate Neda Soltan 'martyrdom' -HERE

"The Iranian authorities have ordered the family of a student shot dead in Tehran to take down mourning posters as they struggle to stop her becoming the rallying point for protests against the presidential election. "

RT f Iran: new reports coming in.. #iranelection less than 10 seconds ago from TwitterFon

Is Iran DPI censorship story wrong?

’ll begin with the depressing: total anonymization of data traffic is incredibly challenging if you’re up against a dedicated and well-prepared foe. Fortunately, you’re up against a government, which suggests that there will almost certainly be gaps, holes, and errors in any content analysis system that you can use to your advantage. I don’t know what DPI appliances have been sold to Iran (it’s typically a challenge to get this sort of information from companies, even here in Canada), but there are typical modes of ‘resisting’ full content analysis.

(1) Encrypt your data traffic using a TOR node, or something similar. Alternately, use https://proximize.me/ or some other proxy service that also encrypts traffic and you can browse with SSL encryption. DPI cannot penetrate packets that are encrypted - the content is secure when it passes through the devices. The devices *will* still be able to look at header information, but because you would be using a proxy service would not offer accurate destination/origin information to the device.

(2) Wherever possible, use communications systems that are designed to obfuscate what they are; examples of VoIP would be Skype, which attempts to ‘fake out’ heuristic analyses of data traffic. At the same time, I don’t know whether DPI engineers have caught up to the most recent ways that Skype initiates a call, which can indicate the program that is being used.

The challenge that you get into is that, should DPI be deployed effectively, even when it cannot identify the content of the message it can identify what application-type is likely in use (e.g. a web browser, P2P, etc). If you use a series of proxies, however, you will obfuscate the origin of packets (i.e. your location) as well as the destination that you are going to (e.g. hotmail.com, facebook, twitter, etc); this can limit your exposure to particularly obtrusive government surveillance and its effects.

@p2p news

Mass Arrests and Detentions Signal Increasing Repression

+ more...

Family, friends mourn 'Neda,' Iranian woman who died on videoHere

Obama is giving a press conference at 12:30 pm Washington time (1630 GMT) so he will have walk the tightrope on Iran again. He has been very cautious, taking a much more measured line than European leaders, but he is coming under considerable domestic pressure to turn up the rhetoric, at a time when Iranian leaders are blaming outsiders for the crisis.

@TheGuardian

RT make stencils of neda and spray paint her image everywhere! #iranelection #neda less than 20 seconds ago from web

Wie ist Stuttgart heute?

Iran: Stop using Basij militia to police demonstrations - Amnesty International

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Iran has begun to "change" because of the protests but cautioned that Barack Obama would not back calls for a general strike there, according to Reuters.

Mir Hossein Mousavi میر حسین موسوی شماره ارائه شده تحت عنوان دفتر حقوقی موسوی در وبسایت قلم(88926773) ظاهرا شماره فکس بخش اشتراک ماهنامه نقش آفرینان است !! از همکاران وبسایت قلم مجددا خواهشمندم رفع ابهامات را جدی بگیرند، پیش از آن از همگی حامیان خواهشمندم هیچ گونه اطلاعاتی به هیچ شماره ای ارسال نکنند.با تشکر از حامیان هوشیا

Maziar Bahari, a Newsweek reporter who contributed several articles to the New Statesman's

special report on Iran last year, has been arrested without charge and detained in Tehran. The 41-year-old journalist and filmmaker was arrested on Sunday morning by security officers at his apartment in the Iranian capital. The officers also seized his laptop and several of his films. Bahari, who has reported from Iran since 1998, has not been heard from since.

@NewStatesman
The session comes shortly after Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani expressed his deepest concern over the Interior Ministry's course of action towards the post-vote developments.

Larijani, in a rare internal criticism, held the Interior Ministry responsible for the recent attacks against civilians and university students.

“The Interior Ministry should clarify why the security forces destroyed the building and why students were injured or even killed,” said Larijani.

The Majlis speaker also recommended fresh television debates, asserting that "the voice of the people who have taken to the streets in millions should be heard.”

@PressTV

Allegedly a photograph of one the students killed in the raids at Tehran University last week

12.10pm:
Splits in the regime? The speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Larijani , has expressed his "deepest concern" over the crackdown against the protester, in particular the violent raid against Tehran University.

"The Interior Ministry should clarify why the security forces destroyed the building and why students were injured or even killed," said Larijani according to Press TV.

@TheGuardian

Now I know why Professor Tim Niblock has been so quiet!
Enjoy yr retirement

Iran’s political coup

If the reports coming out of Tehran about an electoral coup are sustained, then Iran has entered an entirely new phase of its post-revolution history. One characteristic that has always distinguished Iran from the crude dictators in much of the rest of the Middle East was its respect for the voice of the people, even when that voice was saying things that much of the leadership did not want to hear.

In 1997, Iran’s hard line leadership was stunned by the landslide election of Mohammed Khatami, a reformer who promised to bring rule of law and a more human face to the harsh visage of the Iranian revolution. It took the authorities almost a year to recover their composure and to reassert their control through naked force and cynical manipulation of the constitution and legal system. The authorities did not, however, falsify the election results and even permitted a resounding reelection four years later. Instead, they preferred to prevent the president from implementing his reform program.

In 2005, when it appeared that no hard line conservative might survive the first round of the presidential election, there were credible reports of ballot manipulation to insure that Mr Ahmadinejad could run (and win) against former president Rafsanjani in the second round. The lesson seemed to be that the authorities might shift the results in a close election but they would not reverse a landslide vote.

The current election appears to repudiate both of those rules. The authorities were faced with a credible challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had the potential to challenge the existing power structure on certain key issues. He ran a surprisingly effective campaign, and his “green wave” began to be seen as more than a wave. In fact, many began calling it a Green Revolution. For a regime that has been terrified about the possibility of a “velvet revolution,” this may have been too much.

On the basis of what we know so far, here is the sequence of events starting on the afternoon of election day, Friday, June 12.

* Near closing time of the polls, mobile text messaging was turned off nationwide
* Security forces poured out into the streets in large numbers
* The Ministry of Interior (election headquarters) was surrounded by concrete barriers and armed men
* National television began broadcasting pre-recorded messages calling for everyone to unite behind the winner
* The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull them into complacency
* But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad
* Unlike previous elections, there was no breakdown of the vote by province, which would have provided a way of judging its credibility
* The voting patterns announced by the government were identical in all parts of the country, an impossibility (also see the comments of Juan Cole at the title link)
* Less than 24 hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene`i publicly announced his congratulations to the winner, apparently confirming that the process was complete and irrevocable, contrary to constitutional requirements
* Shortly thereafter, all mobile phones, Facebook, and other social networks were blocked, as well as major foreign news sources.

All of this had the appearance of a well orchestrated strike intended to take its opponents by surprise – the classic definition of a coup.
Curiously, this was not a coup of an outside group against the ruling elite; it was a coup of the ruling elite against its own people.

It is still too early for anything like a comprehensive analysis of implications, but here are some initial thoughts:

1. The willingness of the regime simply to ignore reality and fabricate election results without the slightest effort to conceal the fraud represents a historic shift in Iran’s Islamic revolution. All previous leaders at least paid lip service to the voice of the Iranian people. This suggests that Iran’s leaders are aware of the fact that they have lost credibility in the eyes of many (most?) of their countrymen, so they are dispensing with even the pretense of popular legitimacy in favor of raw power.

2. The Iranian opposition, which includes some very powerful individuals and institutions, has an agonizing decision to make. If they are intimidated and silenced by the show of force (as they have been in the past), they will lose all credibility in the future with even their most devoted followers. But if they choose to confront their ruthless colleagues forcefully, not only is it likely to be messy but it could risk running out of control and potentially bring down the entire existing power structure, of which they are participants and beneficiaries.

3. With regard to the United States and the West, nothing would prevent them in principle from dealing with an illegitimate authoritarian government. We do it every day, and have done so for years (the Soviet Union comes to mind). But this election is an extraordinary gift to those who have been most skeptical about President Obama’s plan to conduct negotiations with Iran. Former Bush official Elliott Abrams was quick off the mark, commenting that it is “likely that the engagement strategy has been dealt a very heavy blow.” Two senior Israeli officials quickly urged the world not to engage in negotiations with Iran. Neoconservatives who had already expressed their support for an Ahmadinejad victory now have
every reason to be satisfied. Opposition forces, previously on the
defensive, now have a perfect opportunity to mount a political attack that will make it even more difficult for President Obama to proceed with his plan.

In their own paranoia and hunger for power, the leaders of Iran have insulted their own fellow revolutionaries who have come to have second thoughts about absolute rule and the costs of repression, and they may have alienated an entire generation of future Iranian leaders. At the same time, they have provided an invaluable gift to their worst enemies abroad.

However this turns out, it is a historic turning point in the 30-year history of Iran’s Islamic revolution. Iranians have never forgotten the external political intervention that thwarted their democratic aspirations in 1953. How will they remember this day?

Gary Sick
here

12pm:

Don't expect that this will be resolved quickly, writes the veteran Iran watcher, Gary Sick, the principal White House aide for Iran during the revolution.

The Iranian revolution, which is usually regarded as one of the most accelerated overthrows of a well-entrenched power structure in history, started in about January 1978 and the shah departed in January 1979. During that period, there were long pauses and periods of quiescence that could lead one to believe that the revolt had subsided. This is not a sprint; it is a marathon. Endurance is at least as important as speed.

@TheGuardian