Despite fantasies of insurrection in some of the more fevered Western media assessments of the confrontation, the balance of forces appears to militate against a knockout blow by either side. U.S.-based Iran scholar Farideh Farhi, speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations, stressed that Ahmadinejad and the Supreme leader may not have the majority of the people behind them, "but they do have support. They also have the resources of the state - both financial and military. So that makes them quite robust."
At the same time, Farhi notes, the opposition coalition includes some very powerful figures from within the regime, who together command the support of a large section of the population. Thus, she warns, "To assume that this will lead ultimately to a victory of one over the other is unrealistic as well as dangerous because it may come at the cost of tremendous violence." More likely, she argues, is the pursuit of some sort of compromise that allows the regime to back down to some extent, without necessarily surrendering.@Time via HuffPo
Army Helycopters flying over Baharestan and Vali Asr Sq. #iranelection
7:13 AM ET -- Demonstrations going local. An editor for the Kahylan newspaper notes to Al Jazeera that university students are now returning to their home towns, and bringing demonstrations with them. "In provinces, where people were before gathering in universities, in recent days were are seeing people gathering in main squares."@HuffPo
Jomhouri Islami newspaper is blaming her shooting on snipers from the MKO (a militant group calling for the overthrow of the republic). It said the group exploited the lack of security created by the demonstrations.
Javan, another pro-regime paper, blamed an even more unlikely source - my friend and recently expelled BBC correspondent Jon Leyne. It claims that Leyne hired "thugs" to shoot her so he could then make a documentary film.
Meanwhile, the government has forbidden hospitals from releasing deaths certificates that give shooting as the cause of death.
"I am personally prepared to legally represent her family against the people who ordered the shooting and those who fired at her. This act was against the law," she told al-Jazeera.
monastreet @ gmail dot com
"I had insisted and will insist on implementing the law on the election issue ... Neither the establishment nor the nation will yield to pressure at any cost," Khamenei said in his first remarks since Obama's press conference.
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