It’s an article of faith inside the Pentagon, the military and on Capitol Hill that the country is sick of ground wars that span decades, even as the Afghanistan war shows signs of lasting until 2017. The outgoing defense secretary, Robert Gates, recently told West Point cadets that the next likely conflicts will be fought on or under the seas, in the skies, and in space. But don’t think that means short conflicts. Gates’ deputy, William Lynn, thinks the “increasing duration of warfare” is a feature, not a bug.
There’s no going back to the era of the first Iraq war, with its “decisive victory,” its coordinated phases between air and land campaigns, and its “clear transitions between conflict and post-conflict,” Lynn told the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ second Global Security Forum on Wednesday morning.
“Our current reality” for the foreseeable future, Lynn said, is one in which adversaries leverage “asymmetries,” like attacking U.S. computer networks, launching missiles or building cheap homemade bombs, to keep a conflict going.
Preparing for the long wars of the future will have “important implications” for structuring the size and composition of the military, especially the reserves, Lynn said, where important post-conflict expertise like civil affairs still largely reside. That point is somewhat crosswise with the advice of defense analysts who want to reduce the size of the Army and Marines in order to save cash and preserve sea, air and space programs.
Lynn didn’t mention it, but there’s also a point here about U.S. strategy. The U.S. has a recent track record of launching wars without knowing how to end them. Anyone who thinks only a ground war can be a protracted one need only look at Libya, a (mostly) air-sea campaign that was supposed to last weeks now in its third month, with no end in sight. Welcome to your next wars.
Spencer Ackerman @'Wired'
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