Of course it is a snub. Of course it is deliberate. Not inviting Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to the royal wedding, while inviting Lady Thatcher and Sir John Major, is a cold, calculated act of high establishment spite against Labour. The failure to correct it – especially when the invitation to the official representative of the Syrian tyranny was so speedily withdrawn – only confirms the miserable, petty, ill-advised disdainful nastiness of the original deed. And I blame Prince Charles. His reactionary fingerprints are all over the wedding's programme of events. This wasn't William's wish, they say.
What's more, it all matters. But not because a royal wedding invitation is itself important. It matters because the snub is a symptom of renewed establishment confidence. British royalty's enduring historic hostility to Labour – a hostility that has very rarely been reciprocated, it should be pointed out – is unsurprising, even today. But the snub might not have been so confidently and publicly delivered without the more general sense, which stretches far beyond the snobbish ghastliness of Clarence House, that it is now absolutely fine and dandy for a public person to parade outright contempt for the Blair and Brown Labour governments.
Prince Charles is not the first or indeed the most important person to allow his judgment to be carried away by the mood of anti-Labour dismissal. David Cameron himself gave way to it only a week ago, when he foolishly permitted himself to use a radio interview to wave aside Brown's passionate desire to become the next head of the International Monetary Fund.
As for Blair – well, where do you start, save to say that in a culture in which Ian Hislop's weekly sneer on Have I Got News For You probably shapes more political attitudes than any of us will ever manage in a lifetime, the man we elected three times no longer even stands a chance of a hearing, never mind an invitation. Left and right have colluded in the process. But the political benefit from it is all on the right. As a result, the right no longer fears Labour. These snubs reflect that absence of fear.
God knows, I've had my criticisms of Brown. And I am not saying he is the ideal person for the IMF job; and I'm certainly not pretending his behaviour has made it easy for Cameron to support his case. Brown has not played this campaign well. But he is without doubt a plausible and serious candidate for such a post. As a former prime minister and long-serving chancellor, he is due a certain amount of courtesy and respect for his achievements, which were as real as his failures. He does not deserve to be snubbed like this by either prince or prime minister. But he can be, because Labour generates no fear among the Tories.
Last week's radio interview was a reminder that Cameron can sometimes be too cocky. He gives in to this over-confidence more than he used to. He did it again this week, to Angela Eagle. He needs to curb this unattractive occasional trait. It is politically dangerous, partly because moderate voters do not like it – Brown suffered from it, too – and partly because it is at odds with his greatest political strength, the clear-eyed strategic recognition that the Conservatives had to knock Labour off the political centre ground, and then keep them off it in the future.
But you can see why the prime minister is feeling so full of the joys of spring – in spite of economic flatlining, the unpopularity of his NHS reorganisation, a stalemate in Libya and the prospect of big Tory losses in the elections next week. All these ought to be pressing down on him, and some of them are, the NHS in particular. But Cameron nevertheless feels confident, because he is pretty sure that he has got Labour where he wants it, still off the centre ground on economic credibility and increasingly at daggers drawn with the Liberal Democrats, not least over the pivotal electoral event of this parliament, the AV referendum. Again, he is free from fear.
The AV referendum campaign ought to be an argument on the merits. It ought to be about fairness and, come Thursday, I suspect that for many voters it still will be. But it has been weighed down by party political calculation. In the process though it has restoked the Tory fear that is so conspicuously absent elsewhere.
The Tories may have hesitated initially over the referendum because they did not want to exacerbate their own relations with the Lib Dems, which were already becoming more brittle over issues like health and banking. But goodness, when they acted, they went for it with overwhelming force and resources, in effect taking over the no campaign as a wholly-owned subsidiary. Intelligent Conservatives like Cameron have always understood that the Tory interest is always likely to lie in defending the first-past-the-post system rather than a fairer voting system, and in preventing Labour and the Lib Dems from making common cause. That's why, a year ago, Cameron was so quick to seize his opportunity by offering coalition to Nick Clegg.
Labour, by contrast, has little understanding of what creates Tory fear. Labour still thinks short-term and tactically, not long-term and strategically. It is obsessed with the wrong target, with battering the Lib Dems, with punishing Clegg for the coalition and the cuts, and using those votes to propel itself back into an overall majority. The first part of that may well happen, starting with the local and devolved elections. The second part, though, is much less certain. It depends on breaking the coalition quickly and winning an early election. But that isn't going to happen, even if AV goes down.
If everyone in Labour thought straight they would see there is a powerful argument for saying that the coalition will be more weakened by a yes vote than a no. If you want to weaken the coalition you want the Lib Dems to be bolder in standing up for themselves against the Conservatives on a range of policy issues. That is more likely with the security of AV, which favours the Lib Dems because it is fairer, under their belt.
You also, however, want to weaken Cameron's standing in his own party and strengthen the influence of the more rightwing Tories to create mayhem. A yes vote would be a lightning rod for these angry Tories. That's why, if you want to harm the coalition, vote yes to AV. If you want to make the British establishment fear Labour again, vote yes. If you are happy to see Labour snubbed by princes and taunted by prime ministers, by all means vote for the status quo, and see where it gets you.
Martin Kettle @'The Guardian'
What's more, it all matters. But not because a royal wedding invitation is itself important. It matters because the snub is a symptom of renewed establishment confidence. British royalty's enduring historic hostility to Labour – a hostility that has very rarely been reciprocated, it should be pointed out – is unsurprising, even today. But the snub might not have been so confidently and publicly delivered without the more general sense, which stretches far beyond the snobbish ghastliness of Clarence House, that it is now absolutely fine and dandy for a public person to parade outright contempt for the Blair and Brown Labour governments.
Prince Charles is not the first or indeed the most important person to allow his judgment to be carried away by the mood of anti-Labour dismissal. David Cameron himself gave way to it only a week ago, when he foolishly permitted himself to use a radio interview to wave aside Brown's passionate desire to become the next head of the International Monetary Fund.
As for Blair – well, where do you start, save to say that in a culture in which Ian Hislop's weekly sneer on Have I Got News For You probably shapes more political attitudes than any of us will ever manage in a lifetime, the man we elected three times no longer even stands a chance of a hearing, never mind an invitation. Left and right have colluded in the process. But the political benefit from it is all on the right. As a result, the right no longer fears Labour. These snubs reflect that absence of fear.
God knows, I've had my criticisms of Brown. And I am not saying he is the ideal person for the IMF job; and I'm certainly not pretending his behaviour has made it easy for Cameron to support his case. Brown has not played this campaign well. But he is without doubt a plausible and serious candidate for such a post. As a former prime minister and long-serving chancellor, he is due a certain amount of courtesy and respect for his achievements, which were as real as his failures. He does not deserve to be snubbed like this by either prince or prime minister. But he can be, because Labour generates no fear among the Tories.
Last week's radio interview was a reminder that Cameron can sometimes be too cocky. He gives in to this over-confidence more than he used to. He did it again this week, to Angela Eagle. He needs to curb this unattractive occasional trait. It is politically dangerous, partly because moderate voters do not like it – Brown suffered from it, too – and partly because it is at odds with his greatest political strength, the clear-eyed strategic recognition that the Conservatives had to knock Labour off the political centre ground, and then keep them off it in the future.
But you can see why the prime minister is feeling so full of the joys of spring – in spite of economic flatlining, the unpopularity of his NHS reorganisation, a stalemate in Libya and the prospect of big Tory losses in the elections next week. All these ought to be pressing down on him, and some of them are, the NHS in particular. But Cameron nevertheless feels confident, because he is pretty sure that he has got Labour where he wants it, still off the centre ground on economic credibility and increasingly at daggers drawn with the Liberal Democrats, not least over the pivotal electoral event of this parliament, the AV referendum. Again, he is free from fear.
The AV referendum campaign ought to be an argument on the merits. It ought to be about fairness and, come Thursday, I suspect that for many voters it still will be. But it has been weighed down by party political calculation. In the process though it has restoked the Tory fear that is so conspicuously absent elsewhere.
The Tories may have hesitated initially over the referendum because they did not want to exacerbate their own relations with the Lib Dems, which were already becoming more brittle over issues like health and banking. But goodness, when they acted, they went for it with overwhelming force and resources, in effect taking over the no campaign as a wholly-owned subsidiary. Intelligent Conservatives like Cameron have always understood that the Tory interest is always likely to lie in defending the first-past-the-post system rather than a fairer voting system, and in preventing Labour and the Lib Dems from making common cause. That's why, a year ago, Cameron was so quick to seize his opportunity by offering coalition to Nick Clegg.
Labour, by contrast, has little understanding of what creates Tory fear. Labour still thinks short-term and tactically, not long-term and strategically. It is obsessed with the wrong target, with battering the Lib Dems, with punishing Clegg for the coalition and the cuts, and using those votes to propel itself back into an overall majority. The first part of that may well happen, starting with the local and devolved elections. The second part, though, is much less certain. It depends on breaking the coalition quickly and winning an early election. But that isn't going to happen, even if AV goes down.
If everyone in Labour thought straight they would see there is a powerful argument for saying that the coalition will be more weakened by a yes vote than a no. If you want to weaken the coalition you want the Lib Dems to be bolder in standing up for themselves against the Conservatives on a range of policy issues. That is more likely with the security of AV, which favours the Lib Dems because it is fairer, under their belt.
You also, however, want to weaken Cameron's standing in his own party and strengthen the influence of the more rightwing Tories to create mayhem. A yes vote would be a lightning rod for these angry Tories. That's why, if you want to harm the coalition, vote yes to AV. If you want to make the British establishment fear Labour again, vote yes. If you are happy to see Labour snubbed by princes and taunted by prime ministers, by all means vote for the status quo, and see where it gets you.
Martin Kettle @'The Guardian'
No comments:
Post a Comment