Monday 10 January 2011

Welcome to Minegolia

For the first time in as long as anyone can seem to remember, there have been traffic jams in Ulan Bator -- a place previously known mainly either as the answer to a trivia question (Which capital city has the coldest average temperature?) or as a historical curiosity: Asia's Timbuktu, the fabled homeland of Genghis Khan. Until recently, the Mongolian capital had more horses than cars.
No longer. Mongolia is in the middle of an epic gold rush -- think San Francisco in 1849 -- but it's copper and coal that have enticed businessmen, investment bankers, and miners from London, Dallas, and Toronto by the planeload. Today, Ulan Bator is abuzz with talk of options and percentages, yields and initial public offerings. Not since the 13th century, when Genghis Khan consolidated the nomadic tribes of these remote steppes and established an empire that eventually spanned from Eastern Europe to Vietnam, has Mongolia seen so much action. The country's stock exchange (though still the world's smallest) rose 125 percent last year, and the IMF forecasts double-digit GDP growth rates for years to come. Others aren't nearly so pessimistic: Renaissance Capital -- an investment bank that specializes in emerging markets, one of many that have recently set up shop in Mongolia -- notes that overall economic output could quadruple by 2013.
"Mongolia is about to boom. Of that, there is no longer any doubt," says John P. Finigan, the Irish CEO of one of Mongolia's largest banks. A veteran of developing markets in scores of countries, he says the only comparable growth potential he has seen has been in the Persian Gulf oil states...
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Ron Gluckman @'FP'

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