Monday, 6 December 2010

Explosive Wiki Rudd cable

WikiLeaks has exposed details of this 2009 meeting between then prime minister Kevin Rudd and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Kevin Rudd warned Hillary Clinton to be prepared to use force against China ''if everything goes wrong'', an explosive new Wikileaks cable has revealed.
Mr Rudd also told Mrs Clinton during a March 24, 2009, meeting in Washington that China was ''paranoid'' about both Taiwan and Tibet and that his ambitious plan for an Asia-Pacific Community was intended to blunt Chinese influence in the region.
It also reveals Mr Rudd offered Australian special forces to fight in Pakistan once an agreement could be made with Islamabad.
The cable details a 75-minute lunch Mr Rudd held as prime minister with Mrs Clinton shortly after she was appointed US Secretary of State in the Obama administration.
Signed ''CLINTON'' and classified ''confidential'', it is the first of the Wikileaks cables so far released that includes a substantive report on Australia.
The unprecedented disclosure of such a frank exchange between top political leaders is bound to complicate Australia's diplomatic ties in the region, especially with Beijing.
At the lunch, Mrs Clinton confided in Mr Rudd about America's fears about China's rapid economic rise and Beijing's multibillion-dollar store of US debt, asking Mr Rudd: ''How do you deal toughly with your banker?''
In a wide-ranging conversation with Mrs Clinton on global hot spots, Mr Rudd:
■ Described himself as ''a brutal realist on China'' and said Australian intelligence agencies kept a close watch on China's military expansion.
■ Said the goal must be to integrate China into the international community, ''while also preparing to deploy force if everything goes wrong.''
■ Characterised Chinese leaders as ''sub-rational and deeply emotional'' in their reactions to Taiwan, the breakaway nation Beijing continues to claim sovereignty over.
■ Said the planned build-up of Australia's navy - later revealed in the May 2009 Defence White Paper to include a dozen attack submarines - was ''a response to China's growing ability to project force''.
■ Sought Mrs Clinton's advice on how to deal with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, whom she labelled the ''behind-the-scenes puppeteer''.
■ Agreed any success in the Afghanistan war would unravel if Pakistan then fell apart - and that Islamabad must be turned away from its ''obsessive focus'' on India.
■ Discussed ways to bring China to the table in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The disclosures in the cable, posted online by Britain's Guardian newspaper, will complicate Mr Rudd's already testy personal links with China after his reported reference to Chinese negotiators as ''rat f--kers'' during the Copenhagen climate change conference.
Mr Rudd also offered Mrs Clinton a candid assessment of the Chinese leadership, drawing a disparaging contrast between China's President Hu Jintao and his predecessor, saying Mr Hu ''is no Jiang Zemin''.
Mr Rudd said no one person dominated in China's opaque leadership circle but Vice-President Xi Jinping - who this year visited Australia and met Mr Rudd - might use family ties to rise to the top.
Mr Rudd also waded into the sensitive issue of Tibet, telling Mrs Clinton he had urged China to strike a deal with the Dalai Lama for autonomy in Tibet - and while he saw little prospect for success, asked Mrs Clinton to use her stature to have ''a quiet conversation'' to push the idea with Beijing's leaders.
On his Asia-Pacific Community proposal - a surprise initiative launched early in his time as prime minister - Mr Rudd explained the goal was to curb China's dominance in regional diplomatic institutions.
He said he wanted to ensure this did not result in ''an Asia without the United States''.
Mrs Clinton has since publicly praised the Mandarin-speaking Mr Rudd for his advice on China and credited him for the US decision earlier this year to join the East Asia Summit.
Mr Rudd is in the Middle East and a spokeswoman said he did not have any comment.
Attorney-General Robert McClelland yesterday would not answer questions from The Age on damage to Australia's ties with China or the role of Australian special forces in Pakistan.
He said in a statement : ''The government has made it clear it has no intention to provide commentary on the content of US classified documents.''
From the cable, Mr Rudd appears eager to impress on Mrs Clinton his knowledge of international affairs, promising to send her copies of his April 2008 speech at Peking University and a draft journal article on his Asia-Pacific Community plan.
That article was subsequently rejected for publication by the prestigious US journal Foreign Affairs.
Daniel Flitton @'The Age'

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